NBA Conference Finals Picks

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

Tonight is the start of what could be a very quick series between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics.  It is a repeat of last season's Eastern Conference Semi-Finals and features all the same major players.  This reason alone could stand as to why the Heat should win this series without too much issue.  Maybe having two of the best seven players in the league, including the best player in Lebron James, is another reason why the Celtics will hope to not get swept.  Let's take a look at each team going into the series.

The original, modern day big three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen will all be looking to not keel over in this series as each of them has a battle tested and banged up body.  It is almost sad to watch Allen hoist up 3's as he shoots off one leg and throws up brick after brick.  Pierce has been nearly as ineffective, capable of getting his shots and getting to the line at times, but never being a sustained force for the opposing team to worry about.  Garnett has actually been the one shining light, but even with his rejuvinated play, KG can no longer carry a team through a grueling seven game series.  The Celtics can probably count on two huge games from him at most.  So what does that leave the Celtics?  Rajon Rondo is great in one game and disinterested in the next.  He is a walking triple-double when he wants to be, but he relies on rebounding especially at the offensive end which is not a good thing when playing a quick transition team like the Heat.  The Celtics have lost their young defensive energy guy in Avery Bradley.  They have no bench to speak of whatsoever.  Doc Rivers is a great coach, but this is not a team to go to battle with.

The new big three, now down to two, of the Miami Heat are looking in prime form to dismantle the Celtics and have a nice long rest before playing the Spurs/Thunder winner in the NBA Finals.  Lebron is consistently playing at the highest level of anyone in the playoffs.  Let's disregard the "can't close" talk as this is a new playoff season, and to this point he has made good decisions and taken over games multiple times when necessary.  The pace Lebron can play at, all while remaining fully in control, is incredible and unmatched.  He has appeared to take on this postseason's challenges with a more aggressive attitude than in year's past.  Dwyane Wade is the other factor that makes Lebron great.  Wade is arguably the second best player in the playoffs which takes pressure off Lebron and lifts the Heat to new heights.  As long as both guys continue their own high level of play and each take over when the time is right each of them, the Heat will be hard to stop. 

There are, however, question marks about the supporting cast of the Heat.  Chris Bosh can hopefully make a return to the lineup soon, but for now it is up to guys like Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, and Joel Anthony.  All have been serviceable at times, but need to show more consistency shooting from beyond the three point line and defending inside to keep opposing teams off the boards.  The Heat do not always have the best supporting cast or bench, but if a few guys can step up each night this is a team that is hard to beat right now.

The Heat are the trendy pick and with good reason.  They have superior talent, and actually have a deeper team at the moment.  The Celtics will battle as any good veteran team does, but the Heat will just be too much.  Game one tonight will not even be close with a worn down Celtics team and the rest of the series will favor the high tempo Heat.  Miami in 5.


From Sunday:

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The San Antonio Spurs begin their series at home tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  It is of course the old guard against the young budding team, and makes for an interesting matchup.  The Spurs are a model franchise in the NBA.  They routinely find unknown players to fill in spots on their team and keep quality character guys on the roster.  They find a way to get every ounce of talent out every man on the roster.  Let's not discount however the big three of the Spurs.  Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan are a formidable core of the team and whether plays run directly through them or they just bring experience and leadership to the floor, these guys keep their team consistently playing at a high level.  Basketball truly relies on experience as games often come down to the last seconds requiring players to make great plays under immense pressure. 

Tony Parker has proven to be an elite point guard in the league and continues to drive this Spurs team on a surprising title run.  Tim Duncan is certainly not the player he once was but the character and drive to win are unquestioned.  He has adjusted his game to accommodate other scorers and found a way to be continually effective on defense and rebounding.  If the Spurs won it all this season, I would not be surprised to see the big man hang it up.  The Spurs have played great basketball the first two series, but the Jazz and Clippers are no where near the level that the Thunder are at.

OKC has arguably the best player in the NBA in Kevin Durant.  The man can score at will and has done so thus far in the playoffs.  You just simply cannot teach 6'11" with a deft touch and the ability to shoot from anywhere on the court.  The Spurs have no one that can straight up guard him, so Durant must make a big impact in this series.  35 point games had better be routine for him, otherwise the Thunder may struggle.  Certainly the most intriguing matchup is between Parker and Russell Westbrook.  Russ is so athletic and an electric player to watch.  His speed with the ball is only matched by a healthy Derrick Rose. It will be his lack of experience, however, against Parker that makes this matchup so great.  If Parker is creating turnovers and making life difficult in anyway for Westbrook it will again be tough for the Thunder to hang. 

There is then of course the wild card in sixth man of the year winner James Harden.  Harden had a fantastic season and has had moments to remember in these playoffs.  The Thunder completely rely on him to be the third scoring option for them and he must continue to rise to the occasion in this series.  Harden is excellent at getting to the basket, but watch out for the Spurs clogging the middle and making this difficult on him.  If Harden isn't getting to the basket he is not always a very effective player.

Tonight's game one should be exciting and fun to watch. It should also tell us where each team stands entering this series. Both teams are rested and will be well prepared.  The Spurs will not give this one up easily and could, in the end, be moving onto the Finals.  I think it is time for the Thunder to step up.  They have the team they want.  The play a complete game and have a couple guys that can score when necessary.  They have the opportunity to use their athleticism to wear down an older Spurs team.  This is going to be a great series to watch and is very hard to pick.  Thunder in 7.

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