Week 1 NFL Picks

Week 1 is finally here as the 2012-13 NFL season kicks off with a full slate of games.  Week 1 is always the hardest week to pick for obvious reasons.  We have not seen a single team play a full game with starters.  We have no idea what to expect from rookies and veterans alike.  Will Andrew Luck and RG3 live up to the hype?  Are teams like Chicago, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Detroit, and Houston as good as people think?  There is a lot of uncertainty, however the show must go on.

As it is week 1, let's lay some ground rules out there:

1. I am getting numbers from Vegas Insider and their consensus spread.  There are many sports books, and often times they vary by a few points.  The consensus spread consists of the line occurring most frequently across the board.  The line may also change by 1/2 a point leading up to the game, but for our purposes scoring will be according to the line when I post the picks.
2. I am picking lines.  Even if a team wins, you can still lose when picking.  This week Chicago is favored  over Indianapolis by 10 points.  If I pick Chicago to cover, but the score is 30-21, Bears, I lose.  If it is 30-19, I win.  If it is 30-20, I push and we keep track of that as a tie.
3. As you read my picks, I am taking the team with the number next to it.  When a team has a negative number next to them, they are favored by that many points to win.  From the previous example, Chicago -10, the Bears are favored by 10 points and you can win with the Colts as long as they lose by no more than 9, 10 being a push.
4. A hint...when a home team is favored by 3 (Jets -3 against Buffalo), the odds-makers are saying it's an even spread.  Home teams get an automatic 3 points in NFL betting.  If the line is even, the odds-makers actually like the visiting team more than the home team.

With all of that, let's make some picks!

• Colts at Bears -10
• Eagles -9.5 at Browns
• Buffalo +3 at Jets
• Washington at Saints -7.5
• Patriots -5.5 at Titans
• Jaguars at Vikings -3.5
• Dolphins at Texans -13
• St. Louis +8 at Lions
• Atlanta -2.5 at Kansas City
• 49ers at Packers -5
• Panthers -2.5 at Buccaneers
• Seahawks -2.5 at Cardinals
• Steelers +1.5 at Broncos
• Bengals at Ravens -7
• Chargers +1 at Raiders 

So there they are.  I hope some of you can find some interest and challenge in doing this each week.  If so, put your picks in the comments and we will keep a running score all season.  Good luck and happy NFL season!