Week 4 Quick Hits

What have we figured out through four weeks of NFL football? Often times when you think you know, there are big changes that bring new and more questions than before. The NFL consumes so much of our attention that we overreact to what we see one week that opposes the previous three.  Over sixteen games you will not see your team play their best each time they hit the field. One quarter of the way through the 2012 season, this is what we know:

• The top three teams in the NFL are the San Francisco 49'ers, Houston Texans, and Baltimore Ravens are the best teams in the league. You can put them in whatever order you like, but they as a group are the dominant teams through four weeks.  
• The New York Jets are not a good team and getting worse as the weeks go on.  CB Darrelle Revis went down last week with an ACL injury keeping him out until next season.  Santonio Holmes has now gone down for the season with a foot injury.  These two account for two-thirds of the talent on the Jets with Mark Sanchez being the final piece.   Regardless of the Jets being 2-2 and tied for the division lead, this is a team going in the wrong direction.  Regardless of how good the Niners are, the Jets were shutout by them at home!  Talent is necessary to be successful in the NFL and Jets have very little.  After the Jets get taken to the house again this week, by the Houston Texans, the pressure on Rex Ryan will be too much to play Tim Tebow.  This might give them a boost for a few weeks, but is doomed to turn negative when Tebow's lack of quarterbacking ability shines through.  With the Patriots and Dolphins on the uptick and the Bills still a solid team, the Jets will finish last in the AFC East and near the bottom in the league.
• There is sure to be a QB controversy brewing in Dallas after the Bears dismantled Tony Romo and the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  Kyle Orton came in late and looked decent and they are on a bye week allowing the problems to fester rather than getting a quick chance at redemption on Sunday.  I am still sticking with Romo and asking Jerry Jones to step away from football operations so that a real GM and a quality coaching staff can turn the Cowboys potential talent into winning games each week.  The Cowboys have a defense that has shown great moments, but must come with some consistency.  DeMarco Murray is a premier talent at running back, but must get better play from the offensive line that under achieves week in and week out.  Dez Bryant needs a good mentor to help him focus each week and be able to do productive things on the field each and every play.  We will hear calls for Orton, but remember when he came in the Bears had already torched the Cowboys and were in no mood to play more defense that night.
• The NFL is geared towards offense, but we are seeing a defensive resurgence through new talent and smart coaching on the opposing side of the ball.  The Minnesota Vikings look impressive with a 3-1 start including wins against the Niners and offensive juggernaut Detroit Lions.  Christian Ponder has played with confidence but he is not lighting anyone up.  Adrian Peterson is reliable as always, but he is only one man.  The Vikings have posted impressive defensive efforts worthy of including them in talks about Houston, Seattle, Chicago, and Philadelphia.  Another impressive defense to watch is that of the Atlanta Falcons.  They are generally counted among the top offensive teams and Matt Ryan is the QB right now.  Do not count out their defense, however, which is top ten in points per game against and passing yards per game against.  Their defense is making difference in each game and placing the Falcons in position to make a true run at the Super Bowl.
• The Denver Broncos are a team to continue watching as Peyton Manning looks stronger each week he takes the field.  They have been battling a tough schedule to start their season and will continue this through much of the season.  That said, if Manning continues his progress that team will go right along with him and become a scary team come playoffs.  The AFC West will certainly have a great shot at two teams in playoffs so even if it's for the Wild Card the Broncos should make the party and enjoy a nice run in January.
• Question: What team is 1-3 but has the fourth ranked offense in the NFL? The Kansas City Chiefs are the answer.  The Chiefs are a dangerous team with great wideout play in Dwayne Bowe and an excellent running game in Jamaal Charles.  Why are they 1-3 then?  Through 4 games they have forced three turnovers and have only 8 sacks.  This is a defense that is not pressuring opposing quarterbacks or making plays at opportune times.  This is also an offense that, while putting up great looking numbers, is turning the ball over far too much.  They have 12 turnovers which is unacceptable for any good team in the NFL.  If the Chiefs clean up the mistakes and come with a little better defensive effort, watch out for them to make a run as the season progresses.  

Week 4 is in the books.  The NFL is a quarter of the way through the regular season.  We are getting a better feel for what teams look like for the long haul.  Some teams like the Packers, Steelers, and Patriots are traditional strong teams that must establish their true identity to return to the form we are accustomed.  Every team (except for the Saints/Browns/Titans) has a chance for the season to head in a positive direction and end positively.  It should be exciting as we continue through the year.

Week 5 picks on Friday, but for Thursday night:

Cardinals -1 at Rams