Week 7 NFL Picks

Apologies for the week off from the Picks blog.  We are getting closer to winter here in Tahoe and that means work is getting busier.  Week 7 is an interesting week as we near the half way mark and have six teams taking byes this week (Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Miamia, Philadelphia, San Diego).  This means one less game than a normal mid season slate, but that much more opportunity to watch some other teams.  My picks the last two weeks have been less than stellar, so let's try and get back on track.

The New York Giants have quietly established themselves as the best team in the NFC behind maybe only the Atlanta Falcons, and if those two teams played today i would be taking the Giants.  Washington is coming to town with a chip on their shoulder as they try to recover from early season injuries and ride the maturation of rookie QB, Robert Griffin III.  T-Money's favorite player, RG3, is legit and will be for years to come, but Sunday will be all about the Giants as they confuse him with different defensive looks and bring constant pressure.  Eli is continuing to play at an elite level regardless of who is catching the ball and the Giants can still run it down your throat.  Giants for the win going away.

St. Louis is a decent team stuck in a tough division this season.  They return home to face a team that is hoping to build off last weeks dismantling of the Houston Texans.  Both the Packers and Rams have records that do not show how much potential each team has.  The Rams have a good pressure defense and an offense that hopes for close games.  The Packers have and explosive offense and a defense that appears to be rounding into form.  Playing indoors always favors the home team, but it also favors a pass happy team like the Packers.  Rodgers should continue to spread the ball around creating tough matchups for the Rams and giving the Packers their fourth win of the season.

A battle of the worst as the Browns head to Indianapolis, or is it?  Cleveland is not making the playoffs this season thanks to a poor start and a tough schedule the rest of the way, but they look like a team that is building well for the future.  There are nice looking, young pieces in RB Trent Richardson and QB Brandon Weeden that have kept the Browns in every game this season.  They are clearly still building, but the future is bright.  The Colts offer a similar situation with Andrew Luck growing in his first year, but with far fewer solid pieces around him.  The Browns will be looking for their first road win of the season and will get it.

The Dallas Cowboys must follow up last week's effort with a win this week on the road in Carolina.  The Panthers have a sophomore slumping Cam Newton and little else.  Tony Romo is a good QB that must improve decision making, but also get consistent play from his receivers.  Dez Bryant had a nice game against the Ravens, but if he hadn't dropped two key passes the Cowboys would have won the game.  The Cowboys must and will destroy the withering Panthers even on the road.

Are the Pittsburgh Steelers a good team?  They are not a playoff team, so by Pittsburgh's standards no they are not.  This week will tell a lot about them as they travel to Cincinnati.  Shutting down AJ Green has proven impossible this season, but the rest of the Bengals offense needs to come along with him to be a consistent threat each week.  Beating the Steelers would give them confidence and push them towards a playoff run the last half of the season.  Big Ben Roethlisberger will have something to say about it as he makes play after play keeping the Steelers afloat, but it will not be enough this week.  Cincy for the win.

Best game of the week goes to the Ravens at Texans.  Baltimore has the test of battling through key injuries while the Texans must put up or shut up about being the best team in the AFC.  The Texans looked mediocre against the Packers giving up a ton of yards in the air and even getting run on by one of the worst running games in the league.  Baltimore is also getting run on a lot lately and is susceptible to big plays.  Great running games on both sides in Arian Foster and Ray Rice will put each team in a tough way and show who can step up when facing adversity.  The Ravens have looked much better this season in the passing game as Joe Flacco has thrown the ball down the field with accuracy.  If he continues that on Sunday, the Ravens will keep this close down to the wire.  Houston for the close win as Baltimore tries to find it's new defensive identity without leader Ray Lewis, just as Houston did last week in the absence of Brian Cushing.

Week 7 picks:

• Packers -5 at Rams
• Titans at Bills -3.5
• Browns +2 at Colts
• Cardinals +6.5 at Vikings
• Redskins at Giants -6
• Saints at Buccaneers +2
• Cowboys -2 at Panthers
• Ravens +7 at Texans
• Jaguars +6 at Raiders
• Jets at Patriots -10.5
• Steelers at Bengals +1
• Lions at Bears -6.5

One less game so be sure to follow some new teams a little more closely.  We are near the half way point at which teams should have an identity, or start looking to 2013.  Enjoy your football!

Season: 44-44-2

ESPN Hockey

Yes, it is hockey! No, it is not the NHL.  It is the KHL, the premier professional hockey league outside of the US.  ESPN is showing some upcoming games featuring the world's best players (Ovechkin, Chara, Kovalchuk, Malkin, and Gonchar) while the owners continue to lock out the NHL players.  The KHL is receiving press because ESPN is airing games, but there is a mass exodus of NHL players to multiple European leagues from Sweden and Finland to Germany and Switzerland.  This is never a good sign in the midst of a lockout and is really a bummer for hockey fans in North America.  So what do we take from all of this?

Watch the games on ESPN and show the NHL the value of putting games on a TV channel that matters.  Even when the league eventually comes back games will be on NBC Sports, a channel the majority do not receive.  Gary Bettman has done an abysmal job promoting the NHL and has passed up opportunities to grow the sport via the largest cable sports channel in the country.  A lot of marketing is purely about visibility, and Bettman has limited the visibility of the NHL with his terrible choices.  He has treated the product with disrespect and in turn slapped the fans in the face.  So watch the ESPN games to ensure the ratings are solid.  We want to watch hockey and will tune it when it is available to us!  We will not however watch a league that does not do what is right for it's fans that pay the salaries.

Go out and support your minor league hockey teams.  All across the country are guys playing in the AHL, ECHL, and CHL trying to earn their way to the next level while putting on a show for their fans.  These games often feature great young players and teams loaded with talent making games very exciting.  The atmosphere is often more fun as the buildings are smaller with a lot of noise and entertainment going on.  These teams are also all over the place making their games accessible for even more fans.

There is also college hockey for all to enjoy.  Like minor league hockey, you have a lot of young and talented players that are playing hard for their school and for their future career.  These are exciting games with the great atmospheres we all love at college sports events.  The bands are playing and students are all dressed in their school colors.  Between the minors and college, there is no shortage of hockey to enjoy.

So the KHL is on ESPN and there is a lot of live hockey for us to enjoy.  Support these teams!  We as fans do not need to be subject to the whims of owners and a commissioner that have no thought of how their decisions effect workers in arenas, families of these employees, and of course all of us fans.  Get out there and learn some new names, and see that we all can enjoy hockey even without the NHL.

Week 5 Quick Hits

Week 5 has given us good teams proving their worth, questionable teams fading and personnel issues that will affect teams the rest of the season.

• The Houston Texans remain at the top of the league after a nice road win against the New York Jets who had their backs against the wall and put up a good fight.  The Texans are so solid all the way through their team.  The offense is efficient in it's passing and powerful in it's running.  Matt Schaub is a top flight QB that can make plays when necessary and run their offense to perfection.  He is made even better with the running prowess of Arian Foster.  Foster is staking his claim as the games best RB along with Adrian Peterson, and brings consistent performances each week (532 yards, 5 TD through 5 weeks).  Foster is quick and powerful making him very difficult to take down on first contact, and he always finds the end zone.  The defense has been outstanding but may take hit following the torn ACL to LB Brian Cushing.  Cushing has been a game changer as the leader of the Texans defense.  This will be a big blow to the team, but Houston has shown resilience through injury as any great team does.  I suspect this will hurt them in the next two weeks, but not enough to keep them from winning and definitely not enough to stymie their Super Bowl aspirations.
• If someone said we would be talking about the Vikings sitting at 4-1 and looking like a legitimate playoff contender, we all would have quit the NFL to watch underwater basket weaving.  This is a team with a second year QB, a RB recovering from ACL surgery, only one good, while undersized, receiver in Percy Harvin, and a defense that lost a step last season.  Instead you have a QB that is a leader and playmaker, a RB who is as strong as ever, Percy Harvin playing like a superstar and a defense that has found themselves and made opposing offenses look amateur.  The Bears and Vikings are clearly the class of the NFC North, but the Vikings have been the surprising team making a statement that they are not rebuilding, but instead ready to contend for the division and make a legitimate playoff run.  QB Christian Ponder is definitely not blowing the top off each week, but he moves the ball effectively with accuracy and few poorly timed turnovers.  Cam Newton was the sophomore QB getting the attention, but Ponder is the one producing.  The Vikings are not smoke and mirrors, certainly primed for a strong 10 win season resulting in a playoff birth, but they must withstand a tough upcoming schedule the rest of the way.
• What do you take away from the Ravens/Chiefs 9-6 game?  Turnovers impact games.  I believe the Ravens are still a top tier team in the NFL.  Ray Rice is a great running back and Joe Flacco is continuing to improve as the leader of the offense.  The Ravens turned the ball over two times in the game that put a halt to their offensive flow, but it was the Chiefs who absolutely killed themselves with ill-timed turnovers.  3 of their 4 turnovers were in the Ravens half of the field with one fumble coming on the goal line.  I have been saying the Chiefs are not as bad as they appear and this is because of turnovers.  They are near the top of the league in turnovers which is a sure sign that you will not be at the top of the standings.  The Chiefs moved the ball effectively.  Jamaal Charles is as good a runner as any.  The QB situation could certainly be better with Matt Cassel going down and Brady Quinn the backup, but there remains potential with this team.  This leads me back to the Ravens who were on the road, at one of the toughest stadiums to play in against a team that has talent that must improve during the week and clean up the mistakes on the weekend.  This game will give the Ravens plenty to focus on going forward, and make them a better team down the line.
• There are six teams sitting with a 2-3 record.  Three from the AFC East in Buffalo, Miami, and NY (Jets).  Then there are Green Bay, Denver, and Washington. 
• I am not a fan of the Jets as I have said before.  They have no talent on offense and a defense that cannot make plays like they used to.  Even Tim Tebow will not save this team from a sub .500 record.  
• Miami is young and promising.  Ryan Tannehill has impressed all the doubters with steady play and some highlight passes to none other than Brian Hartline...who?  The Dolphins play tough and seem to have found a way to be effective even with a new coach and young team.  
• The Buffalo Bills are a mediocre team with some nice pieces, but little chance of putting it all together in the same week.  They are inconsistent at best and will hope to hit 8-8.  
• Green Bay is one dimensional at best with little hope of changing this season.  Many people point to either the defense or the running game.  It is actually both that are terrible.  There are spurts for the defense but no consistency and the running game is nonexistent in both running talent and offensive line blocking.  Aaron Rodgers is still one of the best and will give the Pack opportunities to be in games, but this season's future is not bright for Green Bay.  
• Denver is a team that is still finding itself.  Peyton Manning must continue to show improvement in his arm and stay healthy for the team to be competitive, but there are pieces on defense that give the Broncos a chance each week and a running game that can be effective.  Denver will be a completely different team come playoff time in which they will be participating.  
• Washington just has too many injuries and not enough pieces in place to withstand them.  The defense has been shreaded and now RG3 is possibly out with a concussion.  The one bright spot is RB Alfred Morris on an otherwise unimpressive Redskins teams that will certainly not be in the division hunt and may not win another division game the rest of the season.  

Of these 6 teams only the Broncos will likely make the playoffs as there is no strong contender from the AFC West.  The Broncos and Chargers play Monday night and could give us some indication of who will be the division winner.  There is likely one more from this group and odds are it will come out of the AFC East, so I will say the surprising Miami Dolphins will sneak into a Wild Card spot by the end of the season.

Week 5 is gone and thank goodness after a 5-10 picking week for myself.  Atlanta, San Francisco, and New England are very good teams.  They all won solid games on Sunday and will be there until the end this season.  Unfortunately for teams like Tennessee, Cleveland, Carolina, and Jacksonville their seasons are all but over but will show a lot in how their young guys improve in practice and what sort of effort they put forth on Sundays.

Week 6 is already on it's way so be sure to check out my picks later in the week.  Thursday night showcases the Steelers at Titans.  Tennessee is clearly at the bottom of the league, but the Steelers have not shown much promise yet either and continue to battle injuries.  This will be a road win for them, but there is no telling how difficult it may be.

Steelers -6.5 at Titans

Week 5 NFL Picks

We can get the boring stuff out of the way early.  Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay have the week off.  Bye weeks are coming at good times so far this season as all four of these teams lost last week and few of them in a bad way.  The Cowboys and Raiders definitely need some time to sort stuff out after very ugly losses.  Detroit must find their identity again as they have lost all firepower on the defensive side of the ball.  Tampa is an average team that will use the extra week to work on some things and try to get better each week as a young team.

Week 5 has a great slate of games with some old rivalries renewed and other floundering teams trying to right the ship.  There are established best teams in the league, but always remember they are one injury away from going down the tank.  Matt Ryan is playing the best football at the QB position this season.  If he goes down, Luke McCown is not going to carry the Falcons to a Super Bowl run.  There is only one divisional game this week (Cardinals/Rams) so it is a great time for teams to flex their muscle against teams they might see come playoff time.  We will also start to see personnel changes on underperforming teams, the first of which will be Tim Tebow starting for the Jets as early as next week.

Baltimore is heading to Kansas City for what seems like an easy win against a struggling Chiefs team.  If the Ravens show up to play from the start it will be a win going away for them.  What must be factored in is the long travel to a hostile environment against a team that has a bad record but potential to put up points.  Arrowhead stadium is notoriously one of the toughest road stadiums.  Joe Flacco will need to be on point to have success on Sunday.  I like the Ravens to win, but this game will be closer than anyone expects.

The Saints are on the edge of the cliff trying to not completely lose their season.  They face a tough test with the Chargers coming to town.  Phillip Rivers will throw the ball around all night against the Saints terrible defense.  This will be the last game the Saints have their home crowd supporting them if they cannot pull off a win.  Drew Brees has a lot of pride and talent, but the pieces around him are not what he needs to get a win. Somehow the Saints are favored in this game, but it will be a surprise to see them get off the schnide this week.

Last week Baltimore was favored by 13 over the Browns, but Cleveland was one hail mary away from tying the game at the end.  This week the Browns have the opportunity to do the same thing at the Giants.  NYG are a solid team but they pick and choose the games they show up for.  There is the chance they feel over confident at home against the winless Browns.  Trent Richardson plays like a machine and Brandon Weeden is making progress which should allow him to throw the ball against an ailing Giants secondary.  This is another game to watch out for the underdog staying in the game early and forcing the opposition to make some plays down the stretch to pull out the win.

Seattle has a great defense at home, but as we saw last week they are not the same on the road just as it was last season.  Cam Newton does not present an easy task this week in Carolina.  Newton should be able to make plays both throwing and with his feet.  The Panthers defense is not solid, but the Seahawks have a dismal offense.  Russell Wilson is a great guy but needs to show more progress in his passing game.  Marshawn Lynch will be the man Seattle relies on to get a win on the road, but in the end Newton will make enough plays to get the win for Carolina.

The battle of Pennsylvania in Pittsburgh will be an interesting game to watch.  The Eagles have a nice 3-1 record, but have turned the ball over a lot and squeaked by in every win leaving many doubters as to the legitimacy of that record.  The Steelers have not been impressive, but will hope the bye week gave them a boost of energy and an improvement on the defensive side of the ball.  These kind of in-state rivalry games are exciting to watch and is very important for both sides.  If the Steelers can establish their solid D again and make Mike Vick turn the ball over, the Steelers will win this game easily with Ben Roethlisberger making plays as he always does.  The Eagles have been shaky so I like the Steelers off the bye week.

The best game of the week is the Broncos/Patriots game.  The Patriots are automatically favored because the game is not in Denver.  The Patriots offense looked very impressive in the second half last week against Buffalo, but otherwise has appeared disjointed and lacking in creativity.  Perhaps it just took some time for them to click, and if so they will be tough to beat at home.  If they are not sharp, Peyton Manning will be ready to take advantage.  Manning has improved each week to the point now he looks near his peak.  In the end the Broncos do not have the weapons the Patriots do and will struggle to keep up if it becomes a shootout.  The Broncos D must be ready to attack Tom Brady and shutdown the run game.  This will be a very entertaining game with the Patriots pulling away for the win.

Here are all my picks for Week 5:

• Falcons -3 at Redskins
• Eagles +3.5 at Steelers
• Packers -6.5 at Colts
• Browns at Giants -8.5
• Titans +5.5 at Vikings
• Dolphins at Bengals -3
• Ravens -6 at Chiefs 
• Seahawks at Panthers -3
• Bears -4.5 at Jaguars
• Broncos +6.5 at Patriots
• Bills at 49ers -9.5
• Chargers +3.5 at Saints
• Texans -8 at Jets

We are entering the meat of the NFL season.  Most teams have their identity or are at least showing signs of it.   I had a great week going 10-5 in Week 4, and I expect to keep a solid pace as we learn more about teams each week.  Even with MLB playoffs starting, football will still take center stage Sunday.  Enjoy your football!

Week 4: 10-5

Season: 32-27-2

Week 4 Quick Hits

What have we figured out through four weeks of NFL football? Often times when you think you know, there are big changes that bring new and more questions than before. The NFL consumes so much of our attention that we overreact to what we see one week that opposes the previous three.  Over sixteen games you will not see your team play their best each time they hit the field. One quarter of the way through the 2012 season, this is what we know:

• The top three teams in the NFL are the San Francisco 49'ers, Houston Texans, and Baltimore Ravens are the best teams in the league. You can put them in whatever order you like, but they as a group are the dominant teams through four weeks.  
• The New York Jets are not a good team and getting worse as the weeks go on.  CB Darrelle Revis went down last week with an ACL injury keeping him out until next season.  Santonio Holmes has now gone down for the season with a foot injury.  These two account for two-thirds of the talent on the Jets with Mark Sanchez being the final piece.   Regardless of the Jets being 2-2 and tied for the division lead, this is a team going in the wrong direction.  Regardless of how good the Niners are, the Jets were shutout by them at home!  Talent is necessary to be successful in the NFL and Jets have very little.  After the Jets get taken to the house again this week, by the Houston Texans, the pressure on Rex Ryan will be too much to play Tim Tebow.  This might give them a boost for a few weeks, but is doomed to turn negative when Tebow's lack of quarterbacking ability shines through.  With the Patriots and Dolphins on the uptick and the Bills still a solid team, the Jets will finish last in the AFC East and near the bottom in the league.
• There is sure to be a QB controversy brewing in Dallas after the Bears dismantled Tony Romo and the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  Kyle Orton came in late and looked decent and they are on a bye week allowing the problems to fester rather than getting a quick chance at redemption on Sunday.  I am still sticking with Romo and asking Jerry Jones to step away from football operations so that a real GM and a quality coaching staff can turn the Cowboys potential talent into winning games each week.  The Cowboys have a defense that has shown great moments, but must come with some consistency.  DeMarco Murray is a premier talent at running back, but must get better play from the offensive line that under achieves week in and week out.  Dez Bryant needs a good mentor to help him focus each week and be able to do productive things on the field each and every play.  We will hear calls for Orton, but remember when he came in the Bears had already torched the Cowboys and were in no mood to play more defense that night.
• The NFL is geared towards offense, but we are seeing a defensive resurgence through new talent and smart coaching on the opposing side of the ball.  The Minnesota Vikings look impressive with a 3-1 start including wins against the Niners and offensive juggernaut Detroit Lions.  Christian Ponder has played with confidence but he is not lighting anyone up.  Adrian Peterson is reliable as always, but he is only one man.  The Vikings have posted impressive defensive efforts worthy of including them in talks about Houston, Seattle, Chicago, and Philadelphia.  Another impressive defense to watch is that of the Atlanta Falcons.  They are generally counted among the top offensive teams and Matt Ryan is the QB right now.  Do not count out their defense, however, which is top ten in points per game against and passing yards per game against.  Their defense is making difference in each game and placing the Falcons in position to make a true run at the Super Bowl.
• The Denver Broncos are a team to continue watching as Peyton Manning looks stronger each week he takes the field.  They have been battling a tough schedule to start their season and will continue this through much of the season.  That said, if Manning continues his progress that team will go right along with him and become a scary team come playoffs.  The AFC West will certainly have a great shot at two teams in playoffs so even if it's for the Wild Card the Broncos should make the party and enjoy a nice run in January.
• Question: What team is 1-3 but has the fourth ranked offense in the NFL? The Kansas City Chiefs are the answer.  The Chiefs are a dangerous team with great wideout play in Dwayne Bowe and an excellent running game in Jamaal Charles.  Why are they 1-3 then?  Through 4 games they have forced three turnovers and have only 8 sacks.  This is a defense that is not pressuring opposing quarterbacks or making plays at opportune times.  This is also an offense that, while putting up great looking numbers, is turning the ball over far too much.  They have 12 turnovers which is unacceptable for any good team in the NFL.  If the Chiefs clean up the mistakes and come with a little better defensive effort, watch out for them to make a run as the season progresses.  

Week 4 is in the books.  The NFL is a quarter of the way through the regular season.  We are getting a better feel for what teams look like for the long haul.  Some teams like the Packers, Steelers, and Patriots are traditional strong teams that must establish their true identity to return to the form we are accustomed.  Every team (except for the Saints/Browns/Titans) has a chance for the season to head in a positive direction and end positively.  It should be exciting as we continue through the year.

Week 5 picks on Friday, but for Thursday night:

Cardinals -1 at Rams

NFL in LA: It's happening...Who's moving?

The NFL is taking it's talents to Los Angeles, and very soon.  The LA city council approved all final plans for a new stadium downtown that can break ground as soon as next spring.  Construction will await a confirmed team moving to Southern California, but they will not be waiting long.  There are a handful of teams/owners that would love to move and make more money or sell and make more money.  The appeal of LA is the huge television contract that will come with the team.  LA is underrated as a sports town, but there is so much going on in that city that fans by in large are not talking sports nonstop like many other cities across the country.  So yes, it's the TV money in the largest television market in the US that is appealing to the NFL and potential owners.  The obvious next question is what team moves to LA? By my count, there are five possibilities and one obvious choice.

1. Minnesota Vikings: I absolutely hate this option, but the reality is they are on the list.  They make the list because of their terrible stadium situation and the cities lack of desire to build a new one.  The Vikings are part of one the storied divisions in the NFC North and have prominent rivalries with the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Regardless of no Super Bowl wins, the Vikings have had a lot of success and been a great team for the NFL.  There is the definite possibility the Vikings could leave Minnesota, but I truly hope they do not.
2. Buffalo Bills: The Bills are another team that I do not like to put on the list.  They have the history just as the Vikings do with multiple Super Bowl appearances.  Ownership has shown a recent commitment to try and make the team better with free agent acquisitions   Buffalo has a good stadium situation.  Overall, the Buffalo Bills are a solid franchise, but they are not premier.  They still schedule games in Toronto which makes many outsiders wonder about the true commitment to being in Buffalo.  The Bills are certainly a viable candidate to move, but I love the cold weather football in the AFC East, so again I hope they do not move.
3. Tennessee Titans/Cleveland Browns: This is a group pick because they appear very similar when taking everything into account.  You have teams that have had moments of relevancy over their history.  Each current of version of the team has not been in their city for an overly long time (Titans - 1997, Browns - 1999).  What these teams do have is an extremely solid base of loyal fans.  I will give Browns fans the edge here because they have had less success, yet their fans are as die hard as any other in the NFL.  While the TV money is not huge, the NFL would stand to lose a lot of commitment from fans if either team was moved.  These are two teams that should definitely stay put, but the possibility is clearly there for a move to greener pastures.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: Here is the team that should move to LA.  Yes, it is the one many have picked for the potential move, but that is for good reason.  There are three NFL teams in Florida, a state that most football fans are much more high school and college fans than they are professional sports teams. The Jags ownership has not shown their commitment on the field.  They have put their faith in under performing players and have not stepped up to pay their great players.  The Jags, minus two playoff appearances (2005, 2007) have been irrelevant in the NFL with nine seasons of records .500 or worse since 2000.  There have been brief moments for the franchise, but the Jaguars do not have the history to hold on to.  They would be missed by some in northern Florida, but everyone would quickly turn to their Seminoles or Gators.  The Jacksonville Jaguars should, without a doubt, move to LA and prepare to change the potential future of the franchise forever.  

Clearly fans of these teams will not be happy to hear of the relocation possibility.  What could make things more interesting is if two teams move to LA which the investors there have stated as a possibility.  Change is good at times.  This time is would only be good for Jacksonville.  The NFL should take more interest in these other cities to guarantee these teams stay put.  Minnesota needs a new stadium and should be backed by all owners to push this to happen.  Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cleveland must make firm commitments to investing in great management that can put a better product on the field year in and year out.  These cities have great potential, but must take steps to realize this potential.  I am a huge fan of the NFL back in LA.  I just hope next spring we are saying good bye to the Jacksonville Jaguars and no one else.

Week 4 NFL Picks

I was not going to stop watching football and I am sure many of you were not going to either, no matter how disgusted we were with the Replacements. That, as we all know, was not the point however.

• "It was great to have those guys back," Ravens running back Ray Rice said. "It looked like they knew what they were doing." 
• "I thought they handled (the game) great," Cleveland coach Pat Shurmur said. "I had all the confidence in the world that this was going to be officiated in the right way." 
• "Welcome back to the officials. Good to have them back," Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said. "These guys are really good. The communication was good. I didn't agree with every call, but they were excellent."

I think the players and coaches in Thursday night's game have summed it up well.  The professional refs know what they are doing.  There is not the confusion we have been seeing the first three weeks.  The pace of play has picked up ever so slightly because of better communication.  They are professional refs for a reason.  I am now retiring the term "Replacements" hopefully never to be used again.

Week 4 is upon us and what a great week it is sure to be!  This is our first bye week of the season with just the Steelers and Colts taking the day off Sunday.  The Steelers can certainly use the bye week to recover from their dismal 1-2 start and Andrew Luck will surely enjoy the extra time to continue getting better in practice being this is his rookie season.  They guys on the field this week present some great matchups and some opportunities for redemption or failure.

The Patriots and Packers are both looking for their redemption, both sitting at 1-2.  The Packers have the easier road with the Saints coming to town.  New Orleans still has Drew Brees, but they have no defense and no coach.  The Patriots, on the other hand, travel to Buffalo who has won their last two games and look to being rounding into form.  Buffalo will miss C.J. Spiller who is a huge part of their offense.  This definitely gives the edge to the Pats, who should go to Buffalo and leave with a W.

This is not to say the Lions are a "great" team, but the Vikings will really see what they are made of heading to Detroit.  Adrian Peterson is clearly back near 100% and Christian Ponder looks like a solid QB at the moment.  They looked impressive against the Niners stingy D last week, and the Lions have not shown their potential from last season.  Time will tell if the Vikings can contain all of the Lion's weapons and especially Calvin Johnson.  I do see the Lions pulling out a close one. 

I did not picture talking about the Seahawks/Rams game of the Dolphins/Cardinals game in Week 4, but here we are.  It is great watching Seattle and Arizona play defense.  These matchups should make it even better as they are going against young teams that generally have problems against tough, physical defenses, the likes of which they will see this week.  It should be interesting to see if the Seahawks can take their game on the road where they are 0-1 this season and finished 1-7 last year.  Arizona is at home against Miami, and if they want to be a playoff team, these are the games where they maul the opposing rookie QB and send a statement that they can handle their business.  Seahawks in a close one, Cardinals going away.

The night games this weekend should be some of the best of Week 4.  The Giants travel to Philly and the Bears to Big D in two battles of 2-1 teams.  The Giants/Eagles game, being a divisional matchup, has a little more importance as far as standings.  All four teams do have playoff aspirations making each game important  as a test to see where they are at early in the season.  The Eagles, as we have said for a few years, have a lot of talent on paper, but it's the Giants who get it done on the field.  The Cowboys are similar to the Eagles with all the talent talk, but fortunately for them face a team that is not as consistent as the Giants.  Jay Cutler has the arm, but he finds a way to meltdown and give the ball away often times.  We cannot talk about giving the ball away, however, without mentioning Tony Romo.  Romo is another great talent that finds ways to give games away via turnovers.  I expect the Giants to have their way with Philly, but the Bears/Cowboys game to be an enjoyable slugfest with the Bears being the team with the last turnover and the loss.  

The LV Hilton picks are on the table, here is how I see them shaking out in Week 4:

• Patriots -4 at Bills
• Vikings +4 at Lions
• Panthers at Falcons -7
• 49ers at Jets +4
• Chargers +1 at Chiefs
• Titans at Texans -12
• Seahawks at Rams +3
• Dolphins at Cardinals -5.5
• Raiders at Broncos -6.5
• Bengals -2.5 at Jaguars
• Saints at Packers -7.5
• Redskins at Buccaneers -3
• Giants +2.5 at Eagles
• Bears +3.5 at Cowboys

There you have it, Week 4's picks.  I am batting .500 for the year, time to step it up.  How are your picks going?  Here we go for another week that puts us a quarter of the way through season.  Cheers to football!

Week 3: 8-8 (Should have been 9-7, thank you Repla.....)

Season: 22-22-2

Week 3 Quick Hits: The Good, The Bad, and The Ridiculously Ugly

Getting right down to it, Monday Night Football between Seattle and Green Bay was a farce, an embarrassment, a joke, a complete debacle that cost one team a regular season win just as I predicted it would.  The people calling it weird or crazy or bizarre, you are wrong.  It was none of these things.  It was an explicit missed call that was completely mishandled by refs put into a position they are not capable of handling.  It wasn't weird, it was a mega-blown call.  It wasn't bizarre.  The refs had no clue what call they were making or what to do after the call was made.

It was a farce because the NFL has forced the replacements on it's teams and us as fans, and not cared about protecting the integrity of each game this season.  It was a joke and an embarrassment because the call was so blatanly wrong, yet no off field official could get it right and the NFL can't admit the mistake.  The Packers got screwed, everyone knows it.  The problem is bigger, however, than just a week 3 gift for the Seahawks. It was the biggest mistake by the Replacements on an extremely long list through only three weeks of games, and we can all only hope that Roger Goodell and the Owners stop insulting everyone's intelligence as Trent Dilfer and Steve Young stated following the game.  Some deal must be made to bring professional officials back to the NFL.

The banter on this subject can go on forever as every football fan is disgruntled, but there were some other stories from the NFL this weekend.  Here are this weeks quick hits:

• Atlanta, Arizona, and Houston all sit at 3-0 to start this season.  All three of these teams are for real.  Houston will win their division because they are in a weak division this season, but they are that good as well.  They are an all around great team that should have Super Bowl aspirations.  Atlanta will also win their division, but I will take Houston over them for now because they appear just a little more solid in every facet of the game.  Arizona will not win their division, but will make the playoffs and are a scary team for anyone playing them.  Their defense is matched only by division rival San Franciso and will give their inconsistent offense a chance in every game.
• Where is the Lions defense that scared opposing teams last season?  They have given up 23, 27, and 44 points in the first three weeks of the season.  They have only 7 sacks and no interceptions.  This a group that should be leading the Lions to at least a wild card spot, but instead are getting beat by the Jack Locker led Tennessee Titans.  I think everyone expected more from this Lions teams, and if they don't pull it together quickly the Lions will fade into a letdown of a team.
• The Patriots and Packers both sit at 1-2.  Bother teams were picked by many to be Super Bowl contenders.  That is of course not off the table by any means, but the expectations, especially on the offensive side of the ball, have not been even close to reality.  While watching Brady and Rodgers, we still see their brilliance shine through as they are bound to make plays, but they both must elevate their games.  They need to be the guys making everyone around them better.  They both have the talent to adjust their style of play on the fly, but have not shown this as different players struggle or go down with injuries.  Teams that play tough, hard nosed football have had success against the Pats and Pack. They need to address this and find new ways to compete and win week in and week out.  All that said, both of these teams will make the playoffs so not too much to worry about quite yet.
• Atlanta is a good team as already discussed, but what happened to the San Diego Chargers?  This was a home game for the Chargers that at the very least should have been close.  Instead you had the Falcons travel all the way to the west coast to basically be handed a game.  Phillip Rivers had a whopping 173 yards passing with zero touchdowns and two interceptions.  Rivers is another QB that must elevate his game and make his guys better.  He has shown the raw talent, but defenses can scheme for those things.  Rivers must take the next step in leading his team and making plays when they count.  This game was an embarrassment for them, and a missed opportunity to establish their dominance in the AFC West this season.
• There are two 0-3 teams currently; the Browns and Saints.  Who would win a game between these teams if played on a neutral field?  Trent Richardson would run all over the Saints just like Jamaal Charles did this week. Drew Brees would outplay Brandon Weeden for sure, especially because he has more weapons.  I give the Browns defense the edge as the Saints have stopped no one to this point and have actually made average players look brilliant.  The Browns do not have a strong tradition of winning like the Saints have established the past 5 years so they would be hard pressed to pull out any tight games.  But, the Saints seem to have everything going against them because of Bounty-Gate. I'm taking the Browns for the win, someone play Madden and let me know.  

Week 3 has left a bitter taste in my mouth and I'm sure many others.  The NFL is a great league that we all enjoy watching each Sunday.  There are so many good and interesting things happening each week that it is a shame the very integrity of the game is not only questioned, but destroyed.  Hopefully Week 4's quick hits involve a little paragraph about the return of the professional referees.  Hopefully, but my guess is it will not happen this week or even soon as the Owners have lost no money or fans because of what is going on.  Until that happens I think they are just as happy to keep the extra money in their pockets rather than giving in to part time employees wanting pensions.  

Check out Week 4's picks later this week.  For Thursday night's game:

Browns +13 at Ravens

Week 3 NFL Picks

Week 3 is upon us with many teams facing uphill battles to a positive season.  First, a quick recap from Week 2.  The record was over .500 at 7-6-2 so I can't complain too much, but I sure hope there is a little improvement as we see who teams really are, week in and week out.

The most intriguing game of the weekend is certainly New England at Baltimore.  If you picked one of these teams to start 1-2, you are lying.  Many will call this an AFC championship preview.  What will really be interesting to see is how the losing team comes back next week facing an uphill battle to reclaim first place in their respective division.  The Philadelphia Eagles had better be ready as they travel to Arizona to face a team that is on fire right now with an excellent, physical defense.  This will be a tight game if the Cardinals keep it tight through the first couple of possessions.

Another team that should be weary of their opponent is the Green Bay Packers.  The Seahawks are a very impressive team at home and will give Aaron Rodgers fits all night.  Once again, if Seattle keeps it tight through the first few Packer possessions, this game will slowly turn in the favor of the menacing Seahawk defense.  The Houston Texans face their first real test traveling to Denver.  Peyton Manning will not be happy after his first half performance at Atlanta and will be ready to take it out on the Texans.  I believe this Texans team is for real however, and regardless of the road game at altitude, will find a way to win the game.

Those of course are all picks to win games outright.  Let's take a look, however, at the lines (Current Las Vegas Hilton) and my picks for Week 3:

• Rams +7.5 at Bears
• Buccaneers at Cowboys -7.5
• 49'ers -6.5 at Vikings
• Lions -3 at Titans
• Bengals +4 at Redskins
• Jets at Dolphins +3
• Chiefs +8.5 at Saints
• Bills -3 at Browns
• Jaguars at Colts -3
• Eagles at Cardinals +4
• Falcons at Chargers -3
• Texans -1.5 at Broncos 
• Steelers -4 at Raiders
• Patriots +3 at Ravens
• Packers -3 at Seahawks

We have another great early season week on tap in the NFL.  Teams will start to establish their season long identity and give us a better feel for how to pick each week.  I will of course just aim for over .500 this week and stick to that through 5-6 weeks before having higher expectations.  The NFL is great for the talent we get to see on the great teams, but also the parity amongst the entire league.  It keeps us on our toes and continually watching through the seventeen week season.  Enjoy your football!

Week 2: 7-6-2
Season: 14-14-2

The Replacements

The labor union for the NFL refs has asked for too much and in reality the NFL should continue using replacements as long as it takes for the union to relent on a few of their requests.  These requests include a pension that the refs do not have to pay into, and full benefits for part time employees.  There is not an employor in this world that operates in that fashion.  So the refs have asked for too much and perhaps the NFL should just keep using replacements.

I do not like the replacement refs.  Does anyone like them? Of course not!  There are of course the on field calls that are missed or made incorrectly that will drive any NFL fan nuts.  But there are some other deeper reasons to be unhappy about the replacement ref situation.  One reason relates to the power the NFL has garnered over recent years.  Another reason is the flippant attitude shown towards missed calls and the inevitability that at least one if not a few games will, at some point, be completely blown because of decisions made by refs that are just not qualified to be in the situation.

Before diving into those reasons, one argument I am not buying into is the injury protection that the professional referees bring to the game.  The proponents of this argument naturally point to Golden Tate’s big hit on Sean Lee last week that was without question a penalty.  It was a blown call, but not one that directly affects the outcome of the game. “But the 15 yard penalty could have made all the difference.”  Please, football is a 60 minute game that comes down to more than one personal foul call at the very start of the fourth quarter determining the final outcome.  Back to the injury concern, the NFL has already established a firm stance on illegal hits and how they will react to them.  We are seeing fewer and fewer of them, and through the first couple weeks have seen big hits all within the confines of the game.  This is more a respect among players than a need for someone to police every play for violence.  The Replacements have also kept enough order in that sense, that through two weeks we are only talking about one play.  Last season we had already talked about a handful of players and had many fines handed down with the professional refs in play.  Enough of the injury argument!

The blown calls that do concern me are the scoring plays and end of game situations that will inevitably be blown by a lack of understanding on the part of the Replacements.  The NFL has chosen to ignore this situation.  When it finally does happen, and it will, we will all sit around saying “See, told you so” and the NFL will try and spin it into a positive to bring back the pros.  All the while there will be actual wins and losses established by poor decision making rather than play on the field.  It will then be easy to blame the Replacements, but they should never have been there in the first place!  They are a good group of people doing their best in an impossible situation.  None of them are prepared to call a game at the speed of which the NFL plays.  None of them are prepared to handle the abuse from players and coaches that is doled out repeatedly throughout a game.  These Replacements cannot and should not be officiating at the level they have been thrust into.

What makes the whole situation even worse is that Dictator Goodell is haggling over $50 million for highly valuable employee services when he runs a $30 billion dollar industry.  I am tired of the NFL abusing its power and leveraging its stranglehold on American sports against anyone or anything that challenges it's entity.  Roger Goodell has become the NFL Dictator with no one in place to keep him in check.  The Saints players challenging him on the bounty case, regardless of the outcome, has been a breath of fresh air.  When did a commissioner become the most important person and face of a professional sports league?  Fans watch their favorite sports for the action on the field.  Football gives us speed, talent, and intense physicality.  The players are the ones making this happen.  The refs level the playing field and ensure integrity throughout each game.  Fans deserve the best possible product and right now we are not getting it because of abusive control by the NFL leadership. 

The time has come and gone for the Replacements to be replaced.  I see a lot at risk each passing week.  It is not something that will be gradual, but a big knockout punch that will create havoc in the league and nightmares for the team/s that are on the receiving end.    No, the professionals are not perfect, but we know they can handle the task given them each week.  Sign a bargaining agreement, replace the Replacements, and give us back the league we deserve to watch each Sunday!

Week 2 Quick Hits

Week 2 is complete and with many interesting stories developing across the NFL.  It is of course quite early in the season, but trends have already developed.  The caveat to this is of course injuries as some teams have already been affected and others will come up over the coming weeks to change the destiny of a few teams. So, here are Week 2's quick hits:

• The NFC West has some very impressive defensive units.  The 49ers were already a known quantity following last season and Week 1 against the Packers.  They are relentless in attacking opposing offenses and have established themselves as the best D-corp in the NFL.  What is surprising are the defensive groups in Seattle and Arizona.  The NIners and Cardinals have kept opposing teams under 20 points and are 2-0 to start the season.  Seattle lost a defensive battle with the Cards 20-16 before handling the Cowboys at home, 27-7.  These teams play with intense physicality that has beaten four elite offenses already (Packers, Patriots, Lions, Cowboys).  This is not the NFC West of a few years ago. No team will look forward to playing any of these teams, and division games should be amazing battles to watch.
• Who is the best team in the AFC?  Houston is 2-0, but started with Miami and Jacksonville.  The Texans have handled those teams with ease, but next week they travel to Denver which should give more insight into how good they really are.  New England lost their home opener to the aforementioned Arizona Cardinals.  The Pats offense is strong, but clearly there are some flaws on that team and they are also facing injuries.  Baltimore looked great last week, but lost a nail biter to the Eagles this week.  Pittsburgh bounced back with a crushing of the Jets who looked great in Week 1 but have now taken a step back.  The Broncos have a strong developing offense and impressive defense, but turnovers burned them badly in Atlanta. The AFC is wide open early which can only mean one thing; the AFC will be exciting through the entire season.  I do still like New England, Houston and Baltimore to battle for home-field in the playoffs.
• Can a coach win MVP?  When Peyton Manning, missed all of last season, many asked if he could be MVP as the Colts turned into the worst team in the league with his absence.  The New Orleans Saints will not be the worst team in the NFL this season because they still have Drew Brees, but the absence of head coach Sean Payton has clearly had an affect on that team.  With an 0-2 start, the Saints find themselves climbing a steep hill already.  The Saints have a brutal schedule the rest of the way with games against the NFC East, extra games at Green Bay and home against San Diego, and of course NFC South divisional games with teams that have shown they are prepared to take the next step.  With no leadership from one of the best head coaches in the game, time will tell if the Saints can right the ship before they are staring 5-11 in the face.  It would be a huge turn around for what has been an excellent franchise the last five years, but once again shows the importance of great coaching and the ability to adjust game plans on the fly.  Sean Payton for MVP!
• It does not happen often that a QB throws for over 500 yards or even 400 yards. Eli Manning went for 510 yards on 31/51 passing and three TD's (we will ignore the three INT's).  It was nothing short of impressive regardless of what people say about the Buccaneers defense.  Great players find way to redeem themselves after tough starts. Eli continually proves he is an elite QB and deserves to be discussed in that way.
• What do you make of Cleveland, Miami, Seattle, Indianapolis, and Washington?  These would be the teams with rookie starting QB's.  Everyone is 1-1 except for the Browns (0-2) who have played two tight games. The easy choice for top performing QB is RG3, but don't forget Russel Wilson out in Seattle.  He is similarly athletic and every bit as accurate.  The Seahawks have an impressive defense that makes them the best all around team of the group.  Miami and Indy will continue to be a work in progress.  Reggie Bush will help the Dolphins stay in games and Andrew Luck's maturation will be quick, but neither team is anything to be reckoned with this season.  The Browns should feel better after Weeden remembered how to play football and Trent Richardson found his stride as well.  Their issue comes in their schedule that does not relent all season.  Seattle and Washington should be the best teams from this group, but I give the edge to Seattle as the Skins are now facing serious defensive injuries that will hurt them right away.

The weekly stories developed by the NFL are never ending.  It is a lot fun finding different angles to take on teams and players.  It will be interesting to revisit these quick hits in a few weeks as so much changes in a heartbeat in the NFL.  Week 3 starts Thursday in Carolina as the Giants make a visit to Cam Newton's house.  Other big games include Philadelphia at Arizona, New England at Baltimore, Houston at Denver, and Green Bay at Seattle.  Check out all the picks later this week.

NYG -1 at Carolina

NHL Lockout: Where Does the Blame Fall

The NHL sucks!  The last NHL lockout was a whopping eight years ago and this one makes it three lockouts in less than 20 years (1994-95 Owner Lockout).  It is clearly a disappointing day for any hockey fan.  This particular lockout appears as though it will drag for at least a few months.  Many players have already found other places to play and the owners care so little that they are willing to write off another NHL season.  The biggest losers, once again, are the fans.

On one hand you can blame the players for being selfish and greedy.  They are in entertainment and play a sport that they love and get paid for it.  It's just a fun game they get to enjoy with tons of fans chanting their names and paying lots of money for tickets and merchandise.  They are living the dream making millions of dollars.  Why do we as fans care if the owners want to take back some money to put towards other financial needs associated with running a professional sports franchise?  The players should just be happy to get paid at all since many of us would play for free if we had the opportunity.  Seems like the players have it made and should be making some concessions so that the NHL season starts on time and the Lockout doesn't ever begin.

Sorry, not sure who wrote that last paragraph because the situation is not that cut and dry, and the players are not the ones to be penalized for choices of other people involved.  Remember, this is the third NHL Lockout in less than 20 years.  The third owners lockout in 20 years.  The players are indeed in the entertainment business, but I don't hear anyone complaining about what your favorite actor or actress is making for a film.  The entertainment industry spans many different areas and the price for attendance and in turn the pay for the entertainers is determined.  A LA Kings jersey can be sold for $160.  Why so much?  I'm not sure, but ask the 18,000 people in the Staples Center why and most will not care because they are passionate about their players and the entertainment they get from them each game night.  We have placed sports at an elevated level making professional sports teams like a bank that can print money.

The OWNERS are the ones that determine how money is spent in their sports organization.  These owners have been such poor business owners that they are locking out their players for the third time in 20 years.  Normal businesses that operated in this fashion would no longer be in business.  Owners are notorious for throwing money around and spending it carelessly.  Their GM will sign average players to top player contracts.  Top players get contracts that are longer than anyone's career could possibly be.  Here is where the mob starts throwing agents under the bus.  Maybe I am wrong, but agents don't put guns to GM's heads.  You can complain all you want about player and agent greed, but you must always return to the source and truly put the blame there.

"Well I would play for free if I could."  Not a more ignorant statement could be made about professional athletics.  I will not sit here and say their lives are hard in any general way, but there are sacrifices made and immense amounts of work put in to become an elite athlete.  Notice every person that ever says something like that is sitting on their couch when saying it.  My logical guess is the top .1% and maybe less become professional athletes at the highest level.  They are there for a reason and you are not.  The physical toll an athletes body takes would scare people if they knew the realities.  "But they know the consequences and choose to do it anyways."  Fair point and the same can be said for any job.  We, however, have dictated that they should be paid higher amounts by continually supporting our teams and spending money that raises profits for owners.  So why as someone who will have physical issues down the line ask for less money when the going rate is what it is?

"Well the players should give more back to the regular people."  I have yet to meet a professional athlete who either doesn't have his/her own foundation, doesn't donate to multiple programs in both their home town and playing town, and doesn't donate their time to visiting hospitals, shelters, etc.  Many athletes catch a bad rap because the media loves to highlight the negative things that occur.  They thrive in seeing someone great being brought down because they are normally so successful.  There are good men and women being great people in society everyday that also make a living playing a sport.  They are in the end, however, people like you and me that want privacy at times and want to lead as normal a life as possible.  These are not selfish desires, but normal human feelings that we can all relate to.

There is some rambling here and even some defensive attitude as an athlete that has been near the top, but to bring this full circle, there are different sides to pick during the NHL lockout.  I for one choose the players side.  While neither side is completely absolved of all issues related to the Lockout, the owners are in fact the owners of the franchises and the league.  They set the policy with their actions, and to this point those actions have been detrimental to themselves.  To ask another party to aggressively cut their revenue percentage and flip the status quo on it's head is asking too much.  There are other ways of reigning in a business without sticking it to your employees.

For one, the man that has led the NHL into three lockouts, Gary Bettman, must be fired and immediately replaced with a more business savvy leader that can leverage new ways of marketing and financing the NHL.  It needs to be someone that cares about the future of the sport, not someone who in the good ol' boys club just shaking hands and pretending to give a rip about where his/her company is heading.  Secondly, and to expand on the first point, an understanding of marketing the NHL to the U.S. must be present.  A simple point, the NHL rejected ESPN's offer a few years back to take a "more lucrative" deal with Versus, now NBC Sports.  In Gary Bettman's eyes, lucrative means more money up front to be on a channel that no one gets.  A marketing savvy person will take less money up front for a better return down the road.  ESPN is not the worldwide leader in sports for nothing.  What they give exposure to becomes more main stream in sports and culture.  They simply have that power now.  If you are not televised on ESPN you will not get that exposure via live broadcasts or on SportsCenter.  You do not have to like ESPN to accept these facts.  The NHL needs better leadership from someone or a group that better understands sound financial and marketing business.  Until that happens no amount of lockouts will ever help the NHL.

The players want to play.  They want to play for the contracts they have been given by their GM and Owner.    The owners do not want to play regardless of the contracts they themselves have handed out.  Until big changes are made I see no optimism for the floundering NHL.  NHL: figure out your larger issues before simply locking out the players and asking for more money.  Here is to hoping the Lockout brings about more change than just in the percentages of revenue.  Hope that leadership will change and look itself in the mirror before proceeding down a path where the NHL is 100% insignificant in our country.

Week 2 NFL Picks

First, for a reminder of playing rules, you can always refer back to Week 1's NFL Picks blog.  This week, and likely every week going forward, I am switching to the current odds posted by the Las Vegas Hilton (LVH). Week 1 was a tough start. 7-8 is not where you want to be, but it's early and there is time to recover. The obvious important thing is to try and learn about teams and know what they are capable of to make the best pick depending on the upcoming opposition.

Week 2 has some interesting matchups.  Once again, picking spreads makes every game interesting as normally a game between the Vikings and Colts would not be super interesting, but with the spread favoring the visiting Vikings by 1 you never know.  Another interesting pick is the Cardinals/Patriots game.  13.5 points is a big spread in the NFL.  The Pats obviously have a great offense, however the Cardinals are not as inept on the defensive side of the ball as some may think and will have the opportunity to make some plays.  The Seattle Seahawks are coming off close road loss to Arizona and will be at home where they were 7-1 last season.  Who wants to take the Cowboys on the road at Seattle?  The Jets looked great last week with Sanchez starting the season off hot.  He has temporarily put the Tebow talk to bed, but with an angry Steelers defense in Pittsburgh, the Jets will have to show even more to keep pace with the Patriots.

Week 2 is coming quick, so here are my picks:

• Buccaneers at Giants -7
• Cardinals at Patriots -13.5
• Vikings -2.5 at Colts
• Saints at Panthers +2
• Chiefs at Bills -3
• Ravens +2.5 at Eagles
• Raiders -2.5 at Dolphins
• Browns at Bengals -7
• Texans -7 at Jaguars
• Cowboys at Seahawks +3
• Redskins -3.5 at Rams
• Jets +4.5 at Steelers
• Titans at Chargers -6
• Lions at 49ers -7
• Broncos +3.5 at Falcons

Week 2 is on the record.  Don't be afraid to make a few picks of your own and see how you match up.  The Packers have already won so I am excited to sit back and enjoy some great games on Sunday!   

Week 1: 7-8

Season: 7-8

Week 1 Quick Hits

It is easy to sit around on a Monday or Tuesday and say what could have or should have happened in the previous weeks games.  Instead, let's highlight what actually happened, and if necessary what we can project for the coming weeks.

Week 1 is in the books.  It was a great opening weekend for the NFL filled with excitement and great play from many surprising players.  Here are Week 1's quick hits:

• The best teams in their respective conferences are the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Each of these teams looked convincing in their week 1 wins and shown that they will likely be there at the end of this long season.  What is interesting to watch is that both teams have good quarterbacks, but rely on an "old school" mentality of power football and tough, hard nosed defense.  In this age of QB's and only teams with elite play at that position getting recognition, the Niners and Ravens are establishing their dominance with smash mouth football.
• RG3 had a better showing in his first week than any other rookie QB.  The Washington Redskins are also the best team among the rookie QB teams.  RG3, however, was convincing as a top flight player at the position.  He looked poised throughout the entire game in a very tough environment down in New Orleans.  What I enjoy about RG3 is his dedication to becoming a passing QB.  He is without a doubt unbelievably talented and gifted as an athlete.  What will amplify those talents is his accurate, strong arm.  He is clearly moving that direction and will be an elite QB throughout his career.
• Preseason means NOTHING!!  Here are a few examples:
• The NY Jets scored zero touchdowns and looked really inept most of the time on offense.  Week 1 brought about 5 offensive touchdowns and a very impressive performance from Mark Sanchez and his entire unit.
• Seattle was very impressive going undefeated and gaining a big bandwagon following heading into the season.  Week 1 brought a loss at Arizona, who many panned as the worst team in the NFL outside of Indianapolis.
• Philadelphia was picked by everyone to win the NFC East and looked convincing through the preseason with a 4-0 record.  Week 1 brought a lucky victory against a basement dwelling team in Cleveland, leaving the Eagles with more questions than answers.
• The Denver Broncos are a team to be reckoned with.  Pittsburgh may not be what they have been on defense in the past few years, but they always bring a toughness to games that challenges the best of offenses.  Peyton Manning not only withstood the Steelers onslaught, but had a couple drives that were extremely impressive and reminiscent of Manning a few years ago.  This was, once again, only Week 1 and many things can change.  The one thing that always changes with Manning over the course of the season is he gets better.  His timing and efficiency will get better assuming he stays on the field.  This will ensure a division win for the Broncos and a possible deep playoff run if the defense stays healthy and productive as well.
• Adrian Peterson is a freak.  The man ran for 84 yards on 17 carries and scored 2 touchdowns.  8 months ago he tore his ACL and MCL.  On Sunday he made everyone forget about that with an electrifying performance.  AP really is "All Day" and maintains his status as the best RB in the NFL.  There is always the concern he came back early and could risk exhausting the knee before the season ends, but at this point he is a freak and let's enjoy watching him power his way through defenses each week.  Good luck this week Indy.

Week 2 starts tomorrow night with a big divisional game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field.  It is an early must win for the Packers against a team that looked good last week.

Bears +6 at Packers

Week 1 NFL Picks

Week 1 is finally here as the 2012-13 NFL season kicks off with a full slate of games.  Week 1 is always the hardest week to pick for obvious reasons.  We have not seen a single team play a full game with starters.  We have no idea what to expect from rookies and veterans alike.  Will Andrew Luck and RG3 live up to the hype?  Are teams like Chicago, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Detroit, and Houston as good as people think?  There is a lot of uncertainty, however the show must go on.

As it is week 1, let's lay some ground rules out there:

1. I am getting numbers from Vegas Insider and their consensus spread.  There are many sports books, and often times they vary by a few points.  The consensus spread consists of the line occurring most frequently across the board.  The line may also change by 1/2 a point leading up to the game, but for our purposes scoring will be according to the line when I post the picks.
2. I am picking lines.  Even if a team wins, you can still lose when picking.  This week Chicago is favored  over Indianapolis by 10 points.  If I pick Chicago to cover, but the score is 30-21, Bears, I lose.  If it is 30-19, I win.  If it is 30-20, I push and we keep track of that as a tie.
3. As you read my picks, I am taking the team with the number next to it.  When a team has a negative number next to them, they are favored by that many points to win.  From the previous example, Chicago -10, the Bears are favored by 10 points and you can win with the Colts as long as they lose by no more than 9, 10 being a push.
4. A hint...when a home team is favored by 3 (Jets -3 against Buffalo), the odds-makers are saying it's an even spread.  Home teams get an automatic 3 points in NFL betting.  If the line is even, the odds-makers actually like the visiting team more than the home team.

With all of that, let's make some picks!

• Colts at Bears -10
• Eagles -9.5 at Browns
• Buffalo +3 at Jets
• Washington at Saints -7.5
• Patriots -5.5 at Titans
• Jaguars at Vikings -3.5
• Dolphins at Texans -13
• St. Louis +8 at Lions
• Atlanta -2.5 at Kansas City
• 49ers at Packers -5
• Panthers -2.5 at Buccaneers
• Seahawks -2.5 at Cardinals
• Steelers +1.5 at Broncos
• Bengals at Ravens -7
• Chargers +1 at Raiders 

So there they are.  I hope some of you can find some interest and challenge in doing this each week.  If so, put your picks in the comments and we will keep a running score all season.  Good luck and happy NFL season!

NFL Weekly Picks

The NFL has consumed sports culture in America. There are many ways to watch football and feel more a part of all the action, but fantasy football has been the biggest thing to capture NFL viewer's attention. While it is fun to play it does not always require a strong football mind to be successful. Injuries and/or surprise performances can change the course of a league in a heartbeat. There is, however another way to challenge yourselves and your friends in the realm of football.

My good friend Smitty and I have chosen over/unders for games each week, including playoffs, for the past couple seasons.  First, my disclaimer is that we never bet money when doing this which translates to fun for any type of person.  It is a football knowledge game and a test of who has a good feel for teams and the surrounding influences that determine wins from week to week in the NFL.  With that said, why is picking the over/unders more fun and interesting than any other form of extracurricular NFL activity?

Unlike any fantasy game, you are forced to look at more than just a handful of players.  NFL games are more than fantasy points. There are small battles all around the field that determine the outcome of a game. QB's are the most popular players in fantasy games. On the field QB's are extremely important, but they can or cannot be successful without their offensive line performing, skill players making plays, and the defense shutting down the other team. Example: Alex Smith is not a popular QB in fantasy football. Many fans do not think highly of him as a real life QB. However, you must factor in him managing a game well and protecting the ball while allowing other parts of the 49ers to win games. This gives you completely different aspects to examine when you talk about Alex Smith and the Niners when choosing the winner of an NFL game. The other side of this is a player like Adrian Peterson before he was hurt last season. He is consistently a great fantasy play because he is a one man wrecking crew. But, when you have to look at the Vikings as a team you see many holes on their team. Perhaps those holes are not a worry on a certain week while the next week they are left exposed and being blown out, all while AP has a big week regardless. Picking the over/unders challenges you to look at more than a player. You have to look at all players on both teams, how they match up, and what other variable may lead to one team losing but maybe still covering to give a betting man the win.

Speaking of the betting man, choosing over/unders opens up a whole new way to look at matchups each week.  You may feel confident that the game featuring the Texans and Dolphins is going to be an easy win for Houston. But how easy do you really think it will be? If someone tells you the Texans are favored by 13.5, do you feel a little better about the Dolphins chances? You should! The NFL is known for parity with many games remaining close enough that spreads are almost always in play. If you are so confident to take Houston, think about it like this. They must have at least 2 scoring possessions more than Miami. If the Texans can't get in the endzone because of a tough opening night for Matt Schaub, it may take five scoring drives more! This makes any game so much more interesting. You may have games that you KNOW who the winner will be, yet you can lose because of a late garbage TD for the losing team or even a missed extra point for the winning team. You can find interest in every game now that even a terrible team has an opportunity to cover the spread.

If you are an avid NFL fan try a new way to look at games. Each week I will post my picks for all Sunday and Monday games. If there happens to be more than one game that does not fall on those two days (Thanksgiving football), I will post those as well.  I will post by Saturday afternoon so that everyone can see the lines and make their own picks. Throw them up in the blog comments and see how you do each week. You can also register in Pick 'em games with many websites (ESPN, NFL, CBS, FOX, Yahoo) and challenge yourself against a larger audience. Remember, if you pick correctly just 51 percent of the time for the season, you would be winning money in Vegas and probably beating most people you play with.

US Open

The US Open is the most exciting and best tennis tournament to watch.  New York City makes the perfect back drop for the worlds best tennis players to battle in front of raucous crowds.  Every tennis Major has something unique that makes it prestigious in it's own right (except for the Australian Open that no casual tennis fan even knows exists).  The French Open has it's clay courts that change the game so dramatically, an American has only won there four times (Michael Chang '89, Jim Courier '91/'92, Andre Agassi '99) since 1968.  Wimbledon has it's special grass courts that play more similar to a hard court, but also requires all competitors to wear white to keep with old British lawn tennis tradition.  Then there is the US Open.

The US Open is the rock concert of tennis majors.  First, big stars come out to watch.  Before the Open even begins there are celebrations leading up to the tournament that include celebtrity matches and big pop concerts (CarlyRae Jepsen and The Wanted performed this year).  The Open is supposed to be a party and the organizers ensure this every year.

Second, athletes put on a fashion show while playing for two weeks.  This is not stuffy Wimbledon with all white clothing.  We are in NYC, the fashion mecca of the world and the athletes, especially the women, play right into this.  There are colors everywhere and all the big name companies put their athletes in newly designed outfits that beg for attention.

Third, the US Open is highlighted by primetime, and even late night, star studded matches.  Rarely will you see any of the top seeded men or women not on Center Court at 7 and 9 PM.  It becomes a showcase for the greats like Roger Federer and Serena Williams and a potential springboard for their unseeded competitors.  The late night matches are full of energy from the crowd creating the most fun atmosphere a tennis player can dream of.

Fourth, the athletes interact with the fans at the US Open more so than at any other major.  At the end of every match the winner is interview live to the fans.  The players then sign a few tennis balls and hit them into the stand all while music is blaring and the fans go crazy.  It is a party from beginning to end with a match at the US Open.

The US Open is a ton of fun with great tennis players finishing up their major season at an awesome venue.  It will be the usual suspects in both the men's and women's draw with the one exception being the absence of Rafael Nadal due to injury.  For American fans, Andy Roddick will be making a push to up his game for his home tournament, but John Isner is the one to watch.  The big server thrives on the hard courts and will hope to cause problems for some of the more mobile players with his crushing swings.  Serena Williams is the odds on favorite to win her 4th US Open coming off a Wimbledon win and multiple gold medals in London, plus a nice resurgence this entire season.  No matter what, be sure to enjoy the electric atmosphere and high level tennis for the next two weeks!

NFC Preview - South

The NFC has become the power conference of the NFL with four of the last five Super Bowl champions coming from the blue pro bowl team. The conference resurgence has been led by powerful aerial attacking offenses the likes of which have not been seen since Dan Marino's heyday. Guys like Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Aaron Rodgers are the poster boys for the "new" NFL that protects QB's and favors receivers on every interference flag thrown. Once again the NFC fields a solid core of teams with Super Bowl aspirations, but all of them must survive the 16 game regular season and come out on top of their division to even have a chance (yes there are two wild card spots). Let's take a look at each NFC division.

New Orleans Saints

If anyone knows exactly how the New Orleans Saints will look this year, quit your day job and go work in the stock market or gamble your life savings immediately. The Saints off season woes are well documented and will now carry over to the regular season as the suspensions are truly felt as games that count approach. Drew Brees is already counted in the top QB's group, but this season will bring unprecedented challenges to the super star leader. Brees has statistically been a top 3 QB every year in New Orleans, but with no Sean Payton at his side, Brees will be flying solo trying to make in game adjustments. Brees is good enough, however, to figure these things out leaving the real concern on the defensive side of the ball. Regardless of what you believe with "Bounty Gate", there will have to be a culture change among the defensive players. They are also facing the loss of multiple players both from suspension and free agency. It was already a susceptible defense, and now they must find new pieces to plug in to try and stop teams from putting up 20+ points every game. It is anyone's guess as to how the Saints will perform this season, but look for it to be inconsistent and likely leaving them to battle for the wild card.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are another team that leaves fans wondering about the upcoming season. New head coach Greg Schiano was a great motivator at Rutgers, but will that translate to the NFL? Josh Freeman has showed promise at times and seems to have the physical abilities to be a top 12 QB, but can he take the next step of adjusting to defenses in game and carry the Bucs to a handful of wins on his own? Freeman has talented pieces around him (see Vincent Jackson, LeGarrette Blount, Doug Martin, Mike Williams), but they must all show consistency in order for the Bucs to do any damage this season. Where Tampa really must improve is on the defensive side of the ball. They were last in the NFL giving up over 30 points per game last season. They must find a way to stop opposing offenses or Freeman and company will never stand a chance. Mark Barron, SS from Alabama, is a good building block if he lives up to expectations. But in a division with Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan, the Bucs need to find a way to get pressure on the the QB and not let the secondary get picked apart every play. It's a new era in Tampa under Schiano, so early going may be bumpy, but with a new defensive attitude this team will compete in the division every week.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina seems to have the most potential to take a giant leap this season.  Popular opinion says Cam Newton will build on his rookie season and lead the Panthers to a winning record that will put them in playoff contention.  I have little doubt Newton will do just this.  He is a phenomenal athlete that is physically big making him more able to withstand physical punishment than similar players (Mike Vick) cannot handle.  Newton has also shown an ability to accurate both in the pocket and on the move.  With that said, he must still work on his passing and reading of defenses to take the next big step in his career.  All players and especially QB's in the NFL can only live on their talent for so long.  Assuming Newton puts the time in, he will be unstoppable most Sundays.  The Panthers have a few nice offensive pieces including Steve Smith and the RB tandem of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  These are not enough for the Panthers to win every week.  They must find more receivers to free up Smith and get consistent production from their RB's.  TE Greg Olsen should help out a lot gathering up catches across the middle and bringing the popular TE offense to the Panthers.  Carolina must also shore up their defense.  One of the worst in the league last season, they will have little hope of playoff football without the ability to make plays consistently on defense.  The Panthers are an all around young team at many important positions.  If Ron Rivera can continue to grow their young team and develop talent on both sides of the ball as they already have, Carolina will be a team to reckon with, not just this season, but for many years to come.

Atlanta Falcons

A perennial let down team, the Atlanta Falcons are once again talented and appear ready to make a legitimate playoff push. Matt Ryan has been a reliable QB for the Falcons, but must step up a level to carry the team out of the their let down status. He has an amazingly talented WR duo in Julio Jones and Roddy White along with veteran Tony Gonzalez at TE. The Falcons passing offense should create fits for opposing defenses and did so, at times, last season. They cannot decide to choose when they show up for games. Receivers of that caliber should not be dropping perfect passes on a regular basis, ending drives and wasting possessions. The defensive side of the ball is solid for Atlanta, ranking 12th last season, so they have a great base to build on. They need some big time playmakers that can consistently rush the QB and force other teams to speed up their offense. The Falcons are a complete team on paper; translating this onto the field will make them a serious playoff contender.

Final Standings:

1. Atlanta Falcons 11-5
2. New Orleans Saints 9-7
3. Carolina Panthers 9-7
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10

NFC Preview - West

The NFC has become the power conference of the NFL with four of the last five Super Bowl champions coming from the blue pro bowl team. The conference resurgence has been led by powerful aerial attacking offenses the likes of which have not been seen since Dan Marino's heyday. Guys like Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Stafford, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan are the poster boys for the "new" NFL that protects QB's and favors receivers on every interference flag thrown. Once again the NFC fields a solid core of teams with Super Bowl aspirations, but all of them must survive the 16 game regular season and come out on top of their division to even have a chance (yes there are two wild card spots). Let's take a look at each NFC division.

Arizona Cardinals

The NFC West is the exception to the strong corps of NFC quarterbacks.  Look no further than the Arizona Cardinals as they have spent money and draft picks in search of a viable starter, yet they are left with a battle between Kevin Kolb and John Skelton.  Neither has been a reliable QB in the long term and up through their third preseason game neither had separated themselves from pack.  It is a frustrating thing to watch as week in and week out Larry Fitzgerald is among the best WR's in the league, but balls go over him, behind him, into the ground, and every other direction except his hands.  The Cardinals do have some players that have run the ball well at times.  Beanie Wells and LaRod Stephens-Howling have been consistent when they are not injured, but keeping them on the field has become difficult.  Arizona's defense is not as terrbile as last season's record may suggest.  They generally make so big plays to keep the team in games, but again offensive ineptitude left them wanting.  DE Calais Campbell (7 sacks) and second year DB Patrick Peterson and LB Sam Acho are the backbone to a young defense that will continue to improve and continue to give the Cardinals an opportunity to win games in a weak division.

San Francisco 49ers

Last season's division dominating team was the 49ers.  The Niners were the only team over .500 with an impressive 13 wins.  First year coach Jim Harbaugh brought a fresh defensive mentality to the team that carried over to a strong offensive output as well.  The defense should be a league leader once again this season with stalwarts like Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis back in the picture.  The Niners had 42 sacks and 23 interceptions that swung nearly every game easily in their favor.  What really vaulted the team into a strong playoff run was the transformation of Alex Smith and the offense.  Frank Gore was a running force with over 1,200 yards and Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis found their strides as worthy receiving targets.  Alex Smith three for over 3,000 yards for the first time and kept is Int's to 5.  At times it is hard watch Smith and believe he is an elite QB in the NFL, but having the same coaching staff and offensive system for two years in a row should definitely help his development.  If the Niners can even somewhat resemble last season's team, they should run away with the division again and they only problem they will have is that their new stadium is all the way down in Santa Clara.

Seattle Seahawks

A strong home defense and Marshawn Lynch are about the only two bright spots on an underwhelming Seattle Seahawks team.  Two new QB's, Russell Wilson (rookie) and Matt Flynn (first time potential starter) are battling for the starting position.  Neither is a proven NFL performer so the offense will without question have it's ups and downs this season.  Lynch will once again be relied upon heavily to literally and figuratively carry the Seahawks to more than 7 wins this season.  Pete Carroll has a lot to prove this season as he has taken risks on players and tried to win in the NFL with a more collegiate approach to his team.  One area the team can build upon is the defensive unit that was 9th in total defense and had over 30 Sacks and 20 Int's.  DE Chris Clemons and DB Brandon Browner must continue to play at a high level young guys like Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner need to contribute right away for this team to compete week in and week out.  The NFC West does not have a clear cut favorite to challenge the Niners.  The Seahawks can be this team with a stingy D and an improved passing game.  This may prove to be difficult with a new QB and unproven skill players.

St. Louis Rams

The Rams may have the most room for improvement right off the bat with the return of young QB Sam Bradford and a pro bowl running back in Steven Jackson. The biggest thing St. Louis can do is keep their team healthy. This young team was descimated by injury and had no chance to recover all of last season. Danny Amendola, Lance Kendricks, and (the other) Steve Smith should give Bradford some nice targets and a spark to an offense that withered away in 2011. Bradford has had high expectations since entering the league from Oklahoma. He has lived up to them much of the time, but through his own injury battle last year showed signs that he was only a second year QB. This past summer has been big for his development with a full training camp and more time under his offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, as well as time to heal his bum ankle. The Rams must do better than 18 total touchdowns for the season and all signs point to them doing so. The one bright spot that the Rams can build on is their star DE, Chris Long. Long racked up 13 sacks and has become an unstoppable force on the Rams defensive line.  St. Louis is not primed for a deep playoff run, but they did drastically underachieve at only 2 wins.  Expect them to be more competitive in a, as stated many time, weak division.

Final Standings

1. San Francisco 49ers 10-6
2. St. Louis Rams 7-9
3. Seattle Seahawks 6-10
4. Arizona Cardinals 5-11

NFC Preview - North

The NFC has become the power conference of the NFL with four of the last five Super Bowl champions coming from the blue pro bowl team. The conference resurgence has been led by powerful aerial attacking offenses the likes of which have not been seen since Dan Marino's heyday. Guys like Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Stafford, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan are the poster boys for the "new" NFL that protects QB's and favors receivers on every interference flag thrown. Once again the NFC fields a solid core of teams with Super Bowl aspirations, but all of them must survive the 16 game regular season and come out on top of their division to even have a chance (yes there are two wild card spots). Let's take a look at each NFC division.

Chicago Bears

The NFC North, like the East, is an ultra competitive league with the possibility of three playoff teams and a fourth team that has some nice pieces.  The Chicago Bears have become a popular pick to win the division and, with their offensive talent, seem to have a reasonable chance at this.  QB's being the centerpiece of top NFL teams, Jay Cutler is the key to the Bear's success.  Before being injured last season, Cutler was a top QB and with average weapons.  The Bears added Brandon Marshall, who was a stud with Cutler in Denver,  and rookie Alshon Jeffery, out of South Carolina, who has looked excellent in preseason.  Devin Hester is still in Chicago and while never producing how some think he should from the wide-out position, having Marshall and Jeffery in the mix will take pressure off of him to produce every week and open him up from defenses planning for his speed.  He is of course still a dangerous special teams player so expect only bad coaches to ever kick to him. Matt Forte proved himself to be an elite RB last season (how Chicago has not paid him like one I will never understand).  Forte is a game changing player.  He runs and catches as well as anyone out of the backfield.  He is consistently among league leaders in total yards and with the addition of Michael Bush from the Oakland Raiders, the Bears running attack should be very impressive.  The defensive side of the ball has been up and down for the Bears.  Their middle of the road unit will look to get more pressure on opposing QB's and lower total yards and points against numbers that were sub-par.  They addressed this with a defensive end selection in this year's first round of the draft.  The pieces are in place for the Bears to have a very good year, their only problem will be the tough division they play in.

Detroit Lions

The Lions are the up and coming team of the NFC North.  They are build similarly to the other division title contenders with an outstanding young QB in Drew Stafford and a big time play maker in Calvin Johnson.  Stafford, when not injured, is a top flight QB in the NFL.  He has a big, accurate arm and seems to have figured out how to approach NFL defenses.  Megatron, the best WR in the NFL, gives Stafford a great target anywhere on the field.  The fact that Johnson will go anywhere on the field including across the middle to catch a ball is what makes him special amongst a group of great wide-outs in the league right now.  He is ultra reliable and is only getting better.  The Lions also added WR Ryan Broyles, who despite coming off injury has been very highly rated coming out of Oklahoma.  The Lions offense will not slow down from last season.  The Defense will hope to pick up where it left off as well.  Led by Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, the Lions bring a strong pass rush.  Unfortunately for them, their LB's and secondary are not up to the same level allowing opposing QB's who can think quickly to attack them in the passing game.  These shortcomings have been addressed in the draft and in training camp.  Time will tell if the Lions can hang with the elite of the NFC North.

Green Bay Packers

At 15-1, the Packers were the best regular season team last year.  This meant nothing as they lost in their first playoff game to the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants.  Aaron Rodgers is well known as one of the top QB's in the NFL and has shown no let down in the preseason.  His accuracy is well documented, but what has separated Rodgers is his ability to scramble and either make a throwing play on the run or pull the ball down and make smart decisions with his legs.  Rodgers has plenty of weapons around him with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, rookie Marc Tyler, and recently signed Cedric Benson.  Scoring points will once again not be an issue for the Packers.  The defensive side of the ball is another story.  The Packers were last in total defense last season, and while these stats can be somewhat deceiving (31 Int's), Green Bay must make a drastic improvement here.  They drafted six straight defensive players in June and will hope to develop some sort of pass rush to help their solid group in the secondary.  If the Packers can piece together an average defense, look for them to not only win the division but contend for another Lombardi trophy.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are the one team in the North that is in a minor rebuilding phase.  Adrian Peterson looks to be recovering quickly from his obliterated knee injury last season.  If he can return to his prior form, the Vikings will be in a much better place than they are currently.  Toby Gerhart is a valuable backup, but does not look like an elite starting RB.  Percy Harvin is the only proven WR on the team.  Harvin can be electrifying, but if he is the only option, defenses will shut him down with double coverage.  The Vikings must find some more weapons to enable Christian Ponder to unleash in the passing attack.  Ponder is a nice young prospect at QB, but with no one to give the ball to, his growth this season may be tough.  The defense starts and ends with Jared Allen.  He is a work horse on the D-line and is a perennial league sack leader.  If the Vikings D can continue to pressure opposing QB's and keep their games close, there is the possibility of some upset wins. This is a team with some nice pieces both offensively and defensively, but they will be hard pressed to not be swept by their division rivals.

Final Standings:

1. Green Bay Packers: 13-3
2. Detroit Lions: 11-5
3. Chicago Bears: 11-5
4. Minnesota Vikings: 5-11